• Patreon donations spiked upwards after three such AxaMonitor articles, leading Lane to conclude that the articles were responsible for Axanar supporters stepping up.
• Logical fallacy: Such reasoning, of course, is illogical. The fallacy here is often referred to by the Latin phrase, post hoc ergo propter hoc// , “after this, therefore because of this.”
• Other factors might well have contributed to the upticks in the days following each cited AxaMonitor article, such as J.G. Hertzler’s appearance on the February 18 Axanar: Confidential, or Peters’ and Lane’s “Why I’ve Stuck with Axanar” February 4 vulgar livecast in which they scapegoated critics.

Not sustainable: Each sharp spike upward, however, is followed by a deep plunge in daily growth, happening again following Hertzler’s guest shot Monday night.|

AxaMonitor’s projections haven’t changed despite those occasional spikes. Our regression analysis has consistently projected about 275 patrons pledging about $2,500 a month, by April 1.

• The real story Lane alleges AxaMonitor has failed to cover is that the smaller warehouse “has always been a back-up plan if Alec doesn’t make it to $4,000/month. And it’s a plan Alec has been preparing for.”
• Except, of course, we have reported that. On January 21. And January 27. And February 5 (“Go deeper » Paying the rent”). On Axanar: Confidential// February 4, Peters admitted he expected he’d have to move: “The chances I’m staying in the bigger facility are small,” he said, “less than 25 percent.”

The bottom line: Lane continues to cherry-pick Patreon data instead of honestly analyzing all the available data, which clearly demonstrates Ares Studios faces serious trouble meeting its ambitious $4,000 a month goal.