• Patreon donations spiked upwards after three such AxaMonitor articles, leading Lane to conclude that the articles were responsible for Axanar supporters stepping up.
• Logical fallacy: Such reasoning, of course, is illogical. The fallacy here is often referred to by the Latin phrase, post hoc ergo propter hoc// , “after this, therefore because of this.”
• Other factors might well have contributed to the upticks in the days following each cited AxaMonitor article, such as J.G. Hertzler’s appearance on the February 18 Axanar: Confidential, or Peters’ and Lane’s “Why I’ve Stuck with Axanar” February 4 vulgar livecast in which they scapegoated critics.

AxaMonitor’s projections haven’t changed despite those occasional spikes. Our regression analysis has consistently projected about 275 patrons pledging about $2,500 a month, by April 1. * The real story Lane alleges AxaMonitor has failed to cover is that the smaller warehouse “has always been a back-up plan if Alec doesn’t make it to $4,000/month. And it’s a plan Alec has been preparing for.” * **Except, of course, we have reported** that. On [[:reel_trek#planning_for_failure|January 21]]. And [[:axanar_confidential#warehouse_lease|January 27]]. And [[:axanar_confidential_3#details1|February 5]] ("Go deeper » Paying the rent"). On //[[https://youtu.be/ANT31tjW3ck|Axanar: Confidential//]]// February 4, Peters admitted he expected he’d have to move: “The chances I’m staying in the bigger facility are small,” he said, “less than 25 percent.”

The bottom line**: Lane continues to cherry-pick Patreon data instead of honestly analyzing all the available data, which clearly demonstrates Ares Studios faces serious trouble meeting its ambitious $4,000 a month goal.
|