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Misinterpreting Patreon Data
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- Patreon donations spiked upwards after three such AxaMonitor articles, leading Lane to conclude that the articles were responsible for Axanar supporters stepping up.
- Logical fallacy: Such reasoning, of course, is illogical. The fallacy here is often referred to by the Latin phrase, post hoc ergo propter hoc// , “after this, therefore because of this.”
- Other factors might well have contributed to the upticks in the days following each cited AxaMonitor article, such as J.G. Hertzler’s appearance on the February 18 Axanar: Confidential, or Peters’ and Lane’s “Why I’ve Stuck with Axanar” February 4 vulgar livecast in which they scapegoated critics.
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| Not sustainable: Each sharp spike upward, however, is followed by a deep plunge in daily growth, happening again following Hertzler’s guest shot Monday night. |
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| AxaMonitor’s projections haven’t changed despite those occasional spikes. Our regression analysis has consistently projected about 275 patrons pledging about $2,500 a month, by April 1. |
The bottom line**: Lane continues to cherry-pick Patreon data instead of honestly analyzing all the available data, which clearly demonstrates Ares Studios faces serious trouble meeting its ambitious $4,000 a month goal.
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