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misinterpret_patreon_data [2019/02/20 15:36] – Carlos Pedrazamisinterpret_patreon_data [2019/02/23 13:27] (current) – [Projections] Carlos Pedraza
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 +<fs x-small>FEBRUARY 21, 2019<wrap indent> | </wrap><wrap indent> 2 MIN READ</wrap></fs>
 +
 ====== Misinterpreting Patreon Data ====== ====== Misinterpreting Patreon Data ======
 +
 +**//Axanar Blogger Cherry Picks Data to Discredit AxaMonitor Coverage// **
 +
 +{{TOC}}
  
 {{page>byline}} {{page>byline}}
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 **Blogger Jonathan Lane** tries to [[https://www.facebook.com/groups/258982371228800/permalink/596266427500391/|make the case]] on The Real Truth About Axanar that AxaMonitor’s reporting on the slowdowns of Alec Peters’ Patreon effort is spurring more donations. **Blogger Jonathan Lane** tries to [[https://www.facebook.com/groups/258982371228800/permalink/596266427500391/|make the case]] on The Real Truth About Axanar that AxaMonitor’s reporting on the slowdowns of Alec Peters’ Patreon effort is spurring more donations.
  
-{{https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c/images/1d8375a6-0392-423c-a005-6eaa83e8ef95.jpg?nolink&564|gallery.mailchimp.com_2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c_images_1d8375a6-0392-423c-a005-6eaa83e8ef95.jpg?450}}+{{https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c/images/1d8375a6-0392-423c-a005-6eaa83e8ef95.jpg?nolink&450x423  |gallery.mailchimp.com_2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c_images_1d8375a6-0392-423c-a005-6eaa83e8ef95.jpg?450}}
  
 ===== Upward Spikes ===== ===== Upward Spikes =====
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 Patreon donations spiked upwards after three such AxaMonitor articles, leading Lane to conclude that the articles were responsible for Axanar supporters stepping up. Patreon donations spiked upwards after three such AxaMonitor articles, leading Lane to conclude that the articles were responsible for Axanar supporters stepping up.
  
-  * **Logical fallacy**: Such reasoning, of course, is illogical. The fallacy here is often referred to by the Latin phrase, //[[https://www.logicalfallacies.info/presumption/post-hoc/|post hoc ergo propter hoc//]]// , "after this, therefore because of this."+  * **Logical fallacy**: Such reasoning, of course, is illogical. The fallacy here is often referred to by the Latin phrase, //[[https://www.logicalfallacies.info/presumption/post-hoc/|post hoc ergo propter hoc]]// , "after this, therefore because of this."
   * **Other factors**  might well have contributed to the upticks in the days following each cited AxaMonitor article, such as J.G. Hertzler’s appearance on the February 18 //Axanar: Confidential//, or Peters’ and Lane’s "Why I’ve Stuck with Axanar" February 4 vulgar livecast in which they [[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6_j_wDKziCz6TxFPRhM3u2IKS-ek6AfC|scapegoated critics]].   * **Other factors**  might well have contributed to the upticks in the days following each cited AxaMonitor article, such as J.G. Hertzler’s appearance on the February 18 //Axanar: Confidential//, or Peters’ and Lane’s "Why I’ve Stuck with Axanar" February 4 vulgar livecast in which they [[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6_j_wDKziCz6TxFPRhM3u2IKS-ek6AfC|scapegoated critics]].
  
-|{{https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c/images/fa024dbc-d259-41d2-9a51-c1ee9afaf276.jpg?nolink&564|gallery.mailchimp.com_2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c_images_fa024dbc-d259-41d2-9a51-c1ee9afaf276.jpg}}|+{{https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c/images/fa024dbc-d259-41d2-9a51-c1ee9afaf276.jpg?nolink&564|gallery.mailchimp.com_2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c_images_fa024dbc-d259-41d2-9a51-c1ee9afaf276.jpg}}
  
 ==== Not sustainable ==== ==== Not sustainable ====
  
-Each sharp spike upward, however, is followed by a deep plunge in daily growth, happening again following Hertzler’s guest shot Monday night.|+Each sharp spike upward, however, is followed by a deep plunge in daily growth, happening again following Hertzler’s guest shot Monday night.
  
 {{https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c/images/6136f263-0616-401a-af70-ad27474ca9a4.jpg?nolink&564|gallery.mailchimp.com_2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c_images_6136f263-0616-401a-af70-ad27474ca9a4.jpg}} {{https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c/images/6136f263-0616-401a-af70-ad27474ca9a4.jpg?nolink&564|gallery.mailchimp.com_2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c_images_6136f263-0616-401a-af70-ad27474ca9a4.jpg}}
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   * **The real story Lane alleges **AxaMonitor has failed to cover is that the smaller warehouse "has always been a back-up plan if Alec doesn’t make it to $4,000/month. And it’s a plan Alec has been preparing for."   * **The real story Lane alleges **AxaMonitor has failed to cover is that the smaller warehouse "has always been a back-up plan if Alec doesn’t make it to $4,000/month. And it’s a plan Alec has been preparing for."
-  * **Except, of course, we have reported**  that. On [[:reel_trek#planning_for_failure|January 21]]. And [[:axanar_confidential#warehouse_lease|January 27]]. And [[:axanar_confidential_3#details1|February 5]] ("Go deeper » Paying the rent"). On //[[https://youtu.be/ANT31tjW3ck|Axanar: Confidential//]]//February 4, Peters admitted he expected he’d have to move: “The chances I’m staying in the bigger facility are small,” he said, “less than 25 percent.” +  * **Except, of course, we have reported**  that. On [[:reel_trek#planning_for_failure|January 21]]. And [[:axanar_confidential#warehouse_lease|January 27]]. And [[:axanar_confidential_3#details1|February 5]] ("Go deeper » Paying the rent"). On //[[https://youtu.be/ANT31tjW3ck|Axanar: Confidential]]// February 4, Peters admitted he expected he’d have to move: “The chances I’m staying in the bigger facility are small,” he said, “less than 25 percent.” 
-**The bottom line**: Lane continues to cherry-pick Patreon data instead of honestly analyzing all the available data, which clearly demonstrates Ares Studios faces serious trouble meeting its ambitious $4,000 a month goal. {{:axamonitor-ico.gif?nolink&}}+===== The bottom line ===== 
 + 
 +Lane continues to cherry-pick Patreon data instead of honestly analyzing all the available data, which clearly demonstrates Ares Studios faces serious trouble meeting its ambitious $4,000 a month goal. {{:axamonitor-ico.gif?nolink&}}
  
 <WRAP tip 75%> <wrap em>COMMENTS</wrap> \\ Discuss this article in [[https://facebook.com/groups/axamonitor/permalink/582440928937425/|AxaMonitor's Facebook group]]. </WRAP> <WRAP tip 75%> <wrap em>COMMENTS</wrap> \\ Discuss this article in [[https://facebook.com/groups/axamonitor/permalink/582440928937425/|AxaMonitor's Facebook group]]. </WRAP>
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