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misinterpret_patreon_data [2019/02/20 14:57] – [3. Misinterpreting Patreon Data] Carlos Pedrazamisinterpret_patreon_data [2019/02/23 13:27] (current) – [Projections] Carlos Pedraza
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-|+<fs x-small>FEBRUARY 21, 2019<wrap indent> | </wrap><wrap indent> 2 MIN READ</wrap></fs>
  
-| 
 ====== Misinterpreting Patreon Data ====== ====== Misinterpreting Patreon Data ======
  
-|+**//Axanar Blogger Cherry Picks Data to Discredit AxaMonitor Coverage// **
  
-|+{{TOC}}
  
-|+{{page>byline}}
  
-|{{https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c/images/1d8375a6-0392-423c-a005-6eaa83e8ef95.jpg?nolink&564|gallery.mailchimp.com_2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c_images_1d8375a6-0392-423c-a005-6eaa83e8ef95.jpg}}| +**Blogger Jonathan Lane** tries to [[https://www.facebook.com/groups/258982371228800/permalink/596266427500391/|make the case]] on The Real Truth About Axanar that AxaMonitor’s reporting on the slowdowns of Alec Peters’ Patreon effort is spurring more donations.
-| |+
  
-  * **Patreon donations spiked upwards after**  three such AxaMonitor articles, leading Lane to conclude that the articles were responsible for Axanar supporters stepping up. +{{https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c/images/1d8375a6-0392-423c-a005-6eaa83e8ef95.jpg?nolink&450x423  |gallery.mailchimp.com_2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c_images_1d8375a6-0392-423c-a005-6eaa83e8ef95.jpg?450}} 
-  * **Logical fallacy**: Such reasoning, of course, is illogical. The fallacy here is often referred to by the Latin phrase, //[[https://www.logicalfallacies.info/presumption/post-hoc/|post hoc ergo propter hoc//]]// , "after this, therefore because of this."+ 
 +===== Upward Spikes ===== 
 + 
 +Patreon donations spiked upwards after three such AxaMonitor articles, leading Lane to conclude that the articles were responsible for Axanar supporters stepping up. 
 + 
 +  * **Logical fallacy**: Such reasoning, of course, is illogical. The fallacy here is often referred to by the Latin phrase, //[[https://www.logicalfallacies.info/presumption/post-hoc/|post hoc ergo propter hoc]]// , "after this, therefore because of this."
   * **Other factors**  might well have contributed to the upticks in the days following each cited AxaMonitor article, such as J.G. Hertzler’s appearance on the February 18 //Axanar: Confidential//, or Peters’ and Lane’s "Why I’ve Stuck with Axanar" February 4 vulgar livecast in which they [[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6_j_wDKziCz6TxFPRhM3u2IKS-ek6AfC|scapegoated critics]].   * **Other factors**  might well have contributed to the upticks in the days following each cited AxaMonitor article, such as J.G. Hertzler’s appearance on the February 18 //Axanar: Confidential//, or Peters’ and Lane’s "Why I’ve Stuck with Axanar" February 4 vulgar livecast in which they [[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6_j_wDKziCz6TxFPRhM3u2IKS-ek6AfC|scapegoated critics]].
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-|+{{https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c/images/fa024dbc-d259-41d2-9a51-c1ee9afaf276.jpg?nolink&564|gallery.mailchimp.com_2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c_images_fa024dbc-d259-41d2-9a51-c1ee9afaf276.jpg}}
  
-|+==== Not sustainable ====
  
-|{{https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c/images/fa024dbc-d259-41d2-9a51-c1ee9afaf276.jpg?nolink&564|gallery.mailchimp.com_2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c_images_fa024dbc-d259-41d2-9a51-c1ee9afaf276.jpg}}| +Each sharp spike upward, however, is followed by a deep plunge in daily growth, happening again following Hertzler’s guest shot Monday night.
-| |+
  
-|+{{https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c/images/6136f263-0616-401a-af70-ad27474ca9a4.jpg?nolink&564|gallery.mailchimp.com_2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c_images_6136f263-0616-401a-af70-ad27474ca9a4.jpg}}
  
-|**Not sustainable**: Each sharp spike upward, however, is followed by a deep plunge in daily growth, happening again following Hertzler's guest shot Monday night. \\  |+===== Projections =====
  
-|+AxaMonitor’s projections haven’t changed despite those occasional spikes. Our regression analysis has consistently projected about 275 patrons pledging about $2,500 a month, by April 1.
  
-|+  * **The real story Lane alleges **AxaMonitor has failed to cover is that the smaller warehouse "has always been a back-up plan if Alec doesn’t make it to $4,000/month. And it’s a plan Alec has been preparing for." 
 +  * **Except, of course, we have reported**  that. On [[:reel_trek#planning_for_failure|January 21]]. And [[:axanar_confidential#warehouse_lease|January 27]]. And [[:axanar_confidential_3#details1|February 5]] ("Go deeper » Paying the rent"). On //[[https://youtu.be/ANT31tjW3ck|Axanar: Confidential]]// February 4, Peters admitted he expected he’d have to move: “The chances I’m staying in the bigger facility are small,” he said, “less than 25 percent.” 
 +===== The bottom line =====
  
-|{{https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2d0411ecf0787fd9d4dc8dc5c/images/6136f263-0616-401a-af70-ad27474ca9a4.jpg?nolink&564}}| +Lane continues to cherry-pick Patreon data instead of honestly analyzing all the available data, which clearly demonstrates Ares Studios faces serious trouble meeting its ambitious $4,000 a month goal. {{:axamonitor-ico.gif?nolink&}}
-|Monitor's projections haven't changed** despite those occasional spikes. Our regression analysis has consistently projected about 275 patrons pledging about $2,500 a month, by April 1. +
-     * **The real story Lane alleges **AxaMonitor has failed to cover is that the smaller warehouse "has always been a back-up plan if Alec doesn't make it to $4,000/month. And it's a plan Alec has been preparing for." +
-   * **Except, of course, we have reported** that. On [[:reel_trek#planning_for_failure|January 21]]. And [[:axanar_confidential#warehouse_lease|January 27]]. And [[:axanar_confidential_3#details1|February 5]] ("Go deeper » Paying the rent"). On //[[https://youtu.be/ANT31tjW3ck|Axanar: Confidential//]]// February 4, Peters admitted he expected he’d have to move: “The chances I’m staying in the bigger facility are small,” he said, “less than 25 percent.”+
  
-|+<WRAP tip 75%> <wrap em>COMMENTS</wrap> \\ Discuss this article in [[https://facebook.com/groups/axamonitor/permalink/582440928937425/|AxaMonitor's Facebook group]]. </WRAP>
  
-|+----
  
-**The bottom line**: Lane continues to cherry-pick Patreon data instead of honestly analyzing all the available data, which clearly demonstrates Ares Studios faces serious trouble meeting its ambitious $4,000 a month goal.|+**Keywords**
  
-|+{{tag>patreon ares_studios owc_studios Jonathan_Lane}}
  
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