Misinterpreting Patreon Data

Axanar Blogger Cherry Picks Data to Discredit AxaMonitor Coverage

Blogger Jonathan Lane tries to make the case on The Real Truth About Axanar that AxaMonitor’s reporting on the slowdowns of Alec Peters’ Patreon effort is spurring more donations.

Patreon donations spiked upwards after three such AxaMonitor articles, leading Lane to conclude that the articles were responsible for Axanar supporters stepping up.

• Logical fallacy: Such reasoning, of course, is illogical. The fallacy here is often referred to by the Latin phrase, post hoc ergo propter hoc , “after this, therefore because of this.”
• Other factors might well have contributed to the upticks in the days following each cited AxaMonitor article, such as J.G. Hertzler’s appearance on the February 18 Axanar: Confidential, or Peters’ and Lane’s “Why I’ve Stuck with Axanar” February 4 vulgar livecast in which they scapegoated critics.

Each sharp spike upward, however, is followed by a deep plunge in daily growth, happening again following Hertzler’s guest shot Monday night.

AxaMonitor’s projections haven’t changed despite those occasional spikes. Our regression analysis has consistently projected about 275 patrons pledging about $2,500 a month, by April 1.

• The real story Lane alleges AxaMonitor has failed to cover is that the smaller warehouse “has always been a back-up plan if Alec doesn’t make it to $4,000/month. And it’s a plan Alec has been preparing for.”
• Except, of course, we have reported that. On January 21. And January 27. And February 5 (“Go deeper » Paying the rent”). On Axanar: Confidential February 4, Peters admitted he expected he’d have to move: “The chances I’m staying in the bigger facility are small,” he said, “less than 25 percent.”

Lane continues to cherry-pick Patreon data instead of honestly analyzing all the available data, which clearly demonstrates Ares Studios faces serious trouble meeting its ambitious $4,000 a month goal.

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