<fs x-small>FEBRUARY 21, 2019<wrap indent> | </wrap><wrap indent> 2 MIN READ</wrap></fs>

====== Misinterpreting Patreon Data ======

**//Axanar Blogger Cherry Picks Data to Discredit AxaMonitor Coverage// **

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**Blogger Jonathan Lane** tries to [[https://www.facebook.com/groups/258982371228800/permalink/596266427500391/|make the case]] on The Real Truth About Axanar that AxaMonitor’s reporting on the slowdowns of Alec Peters’ Patreon effort is spurring more donations.

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===== Upward Spikes =====

Patreon donations spiked upwards after three such AxaMonitor articles, leading Lane to conclude that the articles were responsible for Axanar supporters stepping up.

  * **Logical fallacy**: Such reasoning, of course, is illogical. The fallacy here is often referred to by the Latin phrase, //[[https://www.logicalfallacies.info/presumption/post-hoc/|post hoc ergo propter hoc]]// , "after this, therefore because of this."
  * **Other factors**  might well have contributed to the upticks in the days following each cited AxaMonitor article, such as J.G. Hertzler’s appearance on the February 18 //Axanar: Confidential//, or Peters’ and Lane’s "Why I’ve Stuck with Axanar" February 4 vulgar livecast in which they [[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6_j_wDKziCz6TxFPRhM3u2IKS-ek6AfC|scapegoated critics]].

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==== Not sustainable ====

Each sharp spike upward, however, is followed by a deep plunge in daily growth, happening again following Hertzler’s guest shot Monday night.

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===== Projections =====

AxaMonitor’s projections haven’t changed despite those occasional spikes. Our regression analysis has consistently projected about 275 patrons pledging about $2,500 a month, by April 1.

  * **The real story Lane alleges **AxaMonitor has failed to cover is that the smaller warehouse "has always been a back-up plan if Alec doesn’t make it to $4,000/month. And it’s a plan Alec has been preparing for."
  * **Except, of course, we have reported**  that. On [[:reel_trek#planning_for_failure|January 21]]. And [[:axanar_confidential#warehouse_lease|January 27]]. And [[:axanar_confidential_3#details1|February 5]] ("Go deeper » Paying the rent"). On //[[https://youtu.be/ANT31tjW3ck|Axanar: Confidential]]// February 4, Peters admitted he expected he’d have to move: “The chances I’m staying in the bigger facility are small,” he said, “less than 25 percent.”
===== The bottom line =====

Lane continues to cherry-pick Patreon data instead of honestly analyzing all the available data, which clearly demonstrates Ares Studios faces serious trouble meeting its ambitious $4,000 a month goal. {{:axamonitor-ico.gif?nolink&}}

<WRAP tip 75%> <wrap em>COMMENTS</wrap> \\ Discuss this article in [[https://facebook.com/groups/axamonitor/permalink/582440928937425/|AxaMonitor's Facebook group]]. </WRAP>

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**Keywords**

{{tag>patreon ares_studios owc_studios Jonathan_Lane}}

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